2026 Bull Shoals Preview

2026 Elite Series Stop #6 · August 15

Bull Shoals Preview

The Bull Is Back at Full Pool—and Ready to Test Everyone

Bull Shoals has a funny way of making anglers look brilliant and completely lost—sometimes within the same hour. If there is one dependable Bull Shoals pattern, it is that there is no dependable Bull Shoals pattern.

86.8″Six-year winning average
1.79″Average winning margin
659.42Current lake level
99°FForecast high
Six recent events. Six different winners.
Those winners have used frogs, buzzbaits, squarebills, giant worms, jigs, Carolina rigs and finesse presentations. Bull Shoals rarely gives the whole field the same answer.

Saturday at a Glance

0.42 feet highEssentially at the 659-foot full pool
Sunny and 99°Morning low near 76° with no rain expected
Light windGenerally 2–7 mph with afternoon heat near 105°

This is a completely different lake from the one MoYak faced in 2025. Last August, Bull Shoals was approximately 12 feet high. Anglers fished flooded cover, strange back current and newly submerged objects—including bass caught around a flooded bathroom and stop sign.

This time, much of that extra shoreline cover is gone. Following nearly a week of hot, sunny weather, stable summertime structure should matter more than chasing freshly flooded water.

Six Years of Bull Shoals Winners

Year Winner Length Margin The Story
2025 Dane Lewis 83.50″ 2.25″ Abandoned his original plan and found the winning frog bite on a lake 12 feet high.
2024 Patrick Bowman 79.75″ 0.25″ Won a September grinder by only a quarter-inch.
2023 Troy Enke 90.00″ 3.25″ The best recent late-summer bag; 4.73 fish per angler and 60% of the field limited.
2022 Tommy Probst 87.00″ 1.00″ Adjusted after the early topwater window and edged Chad Davison.
2021 Jason Yiznitsky 93.00″ 3.25″ Won a high-water spring event in stained, warming water with reaction baits.
2020 Adam Isaacs 87.75″ 0.50″ Camped on one point with a 10.5-inch worm and caught a last-minute 19-inch upgrade.

Expect a photo finish. Across all six events, the average winning margin was only 1.79 inches. Three were decided by an inch or less. In 2024, the top four anglers were separated by exactly one inch.

On Bull Shoals, one ordinary cull can be the entire tournament.

What the Bass Boats Tell Us

The national trails offer surprisingly little guidance for an August event on Bull Shoals. We found no verified August Bull Shoals stop in the accessible Bassmaster Elite, Open or College schedules, nor in the FLW, BFL, Red Man, TBF or modern Major League Fishing archives. Their major visits have clustered in spring and early fall.

That makes a local U.S.A. BASSIN event from August 18, 2019 especially useful. It was a genuine late-summer grinder:

8.80 lbWinning five-fish bag
3.33 lbWinning team’s big bass
6.10 lbThird-place five-fish bag
5 of 12Teams with no fish

Williams and Williams won with five bass weighing only 8.80 pounds. Second place caught three fish for 6.44 pounds, while third place brought five to the scales for just 6.10. Five of the 12 teams blanked. View the complete 2019 results.

Estimated kayak translation

Using a fisheries-standard largemouth bass length-weight relationship, the winning team’s 3.33-pound big fish estimates to approximately 18.1 inches. The other four fish averaged 1.37 pounds, or about 13.7 inches apiece.

Estimated winning total: approximately 73–76 inches.

Why this remains an estimate

Weight cannot be converted precisely without each fish’s species, individual weight and body condition. Bull Shoals produces largemouth, smallmouth and spotted bass, and lean late-summer fish may be longer than a standard-weight table predicts.

Bull Shoals can produce 90 inches in late summer—but it can also turn five keepers into a fight for survival.
The 2019 result supports the lower end of our expectations without outweighing six years of direct MoYak history.

What the Past Winners Teach Us

1

The early window can carry the day

Adam Isaacs caught five fish in about ten casts between 7:15 and 7:45 in 2020. With full sun and a forecast near 100 degrees, anyone finding an early shallow or topwater window must capitalize immediately.

2

Know when Plan A is dead

Dane Lewis planned to crank, chase schoolers and drag wood in 2025. None of it materialized. He played the day by ear, found a frog bite and won. Bull Shoals rewards the angler who adjusts first.

3

Cooler water repeatedly matters

Creek arms with color, springs, bluff shade, deeper channel swings and areas with current or oxygen could offer a few degrees of relief—and a few more active bass.

4

Full pool does not mean easy

Normal water removes acres of tempting shoreline habitat and can concentrate both fish and anglers on obvious points, channel swings, docks, timber and offshore targets.

The Elite AOY Race Hits the Drop-Score Stage

Bull Shoals is not merely Stop #6. It is the first tournament at which the Elite Series’ two-drop format begins changing the practical standings.

After five events, Micah Funderburgh leads Chad Davison by 57.25 points. Tyler Alexander is 106.25 points back, followed by Richie McMichael and Johnathan Dominguez. But once an angler records a sixth score, only the best five count. A strong Bull Shoals finish replaces that angler’s lowest result.

Place Angler Total Behind Score to Beat
1 Micah Funderburgh 1,867.50 323.75
2 Chad Davison 1,810.25 57.25 299.75
3 Tyler Alexander 1,761.25 106.25 303.75
4 Richie McMichael 1,726.50 141.00 284.75
5 Johnathan Dominguez 1,704.75 162.75 297.75
6 Zach Woolverton 1,699.75 167.75 276.50

Richie McMichael and Zach Woolverton have even more replacement upside because they are carrying 284.75- and 276.50-point finishes. A Bull Shoals Top 10 could add roughly 90 to 120 points to either angler’s best-five total. Jason Shifflett, currently seventh, is carrying a 258-point finish and may have the most immediate upward mobility among the established contenders.

Protecting the lead is no longer enough.
A mediocre finish may disappear, while a big day can erase most of a deficit in one shot. Every upgrade Saturday affects two leaderboards—the tournament standings and the AOY race.

The Race for the Taney 20

The championship is not the only line that matters. The Top 20 in the final Elite AOY standings earn invitations to compete in the Taney 20 next spring, turning the middle of the leaderboard into a second postseason race.

Trevor Motzkus currently occupies 20th with 1,271.75 points, but only 61.50 points separate him from Sam Young in 26th. More importantly, the raw standings compare anglers with five scores against anglers with only four. Bull Shoals will fill that missing fifth score for several contenders, so the bubble could move dramatically before anyone calculates the final Pomme drop.

Place Angler Total From 20th Bull Shoals Opportunity
19 Trey Dawson 1,305.75 +34.00 Replaces a 181.75 low score
20 Trevor Motzkus 1,271.75 Cut line Bull Shoals becomes his fifth score
21 Troy Enke 1,260.50 -11.25 Bull Shoals becomes his fifth score
22 PJ Coley 1,251.50 -20.25 Replaces a 211.50 low score
23 Noah Whitten 1,236.25 -35.50 Bull Shoals becomes his fifth score
24 Troy Nydegger 1,221.00 -50.75 Bull Shoals becomes his fifth score
25 Mark Dalton 1,218.75 -53.00 Replaces a 167.00 low score
26 Sam Young 1,210.25 -61.50 Replaces a zero

The apparent bubble is not the real bubble

Motzkus, Enke, Whitten and Nydegger have only four scores. Every point they earn at Bull Shoals goes directly into their total. Enke’s 11.25-point deficit is especially misleading: almost any scorable finish moves him ahead of today’s cut line before considering what Motzkus does.

One big day changes everything

Mike Keafer is carrying a zero and already owns a 402.50-point win. Emily Motzkus and Jeff Craven have only four scores, while Andrew Fallert is carrying a 160.25. One Top-10 result could pull any of them into the fight.

For the anglers around 20th, Saturday is effectively a playoff event.
They are not only fishing for a Bull Shoals check. They are fishing to keep Taneycomo on next spring’s calendar.

Anglers to Watch

Micah Funderburgh

Safe Pick

Second here last year with 81.25 inches and leading the season standings after another strong finish at Truman. His Carolina-rig and finesse-jig success makes him dangerous if Saturday becomes a patience contest.

Chad Davison

Proven Threat

Second by one inch in 2022 with the 22.25-inch Big Bass—and an All-American Kayak Series winner on Bull Shoals. Few anglers combine his lake history and big-fish ability.

Zach Woolverton

Dark Horse

Sixth in 2023 and third in 2025. Last year he abandoned flooded buck brush and found fish deep near the dam. Normal water and bright sun could favor that offshore experience.

Troy Enke

Past Champion

The 2023 winner owns the best MoYak Bull Shoals bag of the last five late-summer events at 90 inches. A sixth-place finish in the 2024 grinder gives him consecutive Top 10s here.

Patrick Bowman

Grinder

His 79.75-inch victory in 2024 proves Saturday may not require a giant total. If the bite turns stubborn, Bowman knows how to keep collecting small but valuable upgrades.

Dane Lewis

Defending Winner

Lewis did not win because Bull Shoals followed his plan. He won because it did not—and he adjusted faster than everyone else. The 2025 Rookie of the Year returns as a proven improviser.

What Could Win Saturday?

Low-light opportunityTopwater, buzzbaits, walking baits and moving presentations around shade, points and active bait.
The transitionAs the sun rises, creek-channel swings, docks, bluff shade, standing timber and brush could replenish.
The midday grindJigs, big worms, Carolina rigs, Ned rigs and other slow presentations on deeper structure.
The wildcardSuspended or schooling fish. Light wind and intense sun can make them visible—but difficult to approach and trigger.

The winner is more likely to identify what is happening in one section of this enormous lake and resist the urge to chase reports from somewhere else.

2026 Prediction

Winning Length84″–88″
Top-10 Cut76″–80″
Big Bass20″–22″
Most Important PeriodFirst two hours
Most Important DecisionWhen to move deep
AOY ImpactMassive

Saturday will be hot. It may be slow. And if history holds, the difference between taming the Bull and getting thrown will be measured in fractions of an inch.